As time goes by, it appears more and more like the UK property market is starting to gain ground. Increased buyer enquiries at the start of the year were followed by a higher number of transactions, rising mortgage lending and now, it appears, increasing house prices. Or, it might be clarified, sometimes they are rising.
According to Halifax, August was one of those months. The average went up by a seasonally-adjusted 0.8 per cent to £160,973. While the annual rate of price change still amounts to a 10.1 per cent fall, this was nonetheless a positive sign, meaning that in four months out of eight in 2009 the price has jumped. Moreover, it was the second successive rise, suggesting that the most recent figures could be the ones that carry the greatest weight when assessing the future trend.
Certainly there is evidence of a strengthening underlying trend: The three-monthly rate of increase to August was, at 1.7 per cent, the greatest since July 2007, just as the credit crunch was beginning.
Yet at the same time - and this could particularly aid the housing market among
first-time buyers - affordability has improved substantially. In the third quarter of 2007 the average monthly mortgage repayments for a
first-time buyer were 48 per cent of disposable income. Now they are 29 per cent, which Halifax noted was below the 25-year average figure of 35 per cent. In other words, affordability is high in recent historical terms.
Moreover, this may have already started manifesting itself in greater first-time buyer activity. Earlier this month, the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) revealed that its data for August showed 36 per cent of house purchases to have been carried out by those taking their first steps onto the property ladder, compared with 22 per cent in July.
Such a figure may, of course, be look at as negative by some investors in rental property, since a reduction in the number of people unable to get on the housing ladder might indicate a fall in the number of people renting property.
But this may not be so. Commenting on its figures, the NAEA stated: "This is the sector that often forms the basis of chains and if sustained will lead to a general improvement in the market." This, of course, may benefit investors directly by helping to continue the recovery of the sector, pushing prices up further and therefore increasing the opportunities for capital gains.
Secondly, if the market does see more activity, this could lead to so-called reluctant landlords disappearing from the rental sector as they find it increasingly possible to sell their homes amid a rising tide of transactions. This might mean that while demand for rental property may drop as renters become homeowners, the supply would do so at the same time.
Source:
Assetz